Ankara – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is set to visit Washington tomorrow, Thursday, where he will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. This marks the first bilateral meeting since Trump’s return to power, and the first such visit in nearly six years, as Erdoğan’s last official trip to Washington dates back to 2019. The visit carries exceptional importance given the sensitivity of the issues on the table and the overlap of regional crises with strategic interests between the two countries. Both sides are relying on the personal relationship between the two leaders to rebuild trust and strengthen cooperation.
Defense and Armament
Fighter jet deals are expected to top the agenda, as Ankara seeks to modernize its air force. Turkey was expelled from the F-35 stealth fighter program in 2019 following its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, a move Washington considered a threat to NATO systems.
Political analyst Ali Asmar notes that the U.S. sanctions imposed on Turkey were driven by influential lobbies in Congress, closely tied to Israel, rather than by consensus among successive administrations. He argues these groups aim to prevent Turkey from gaining potential air superiority over Israel. According to Asmar, Ankara is betting on Erdoğan’s direct relationship with Trump to overcome these obstacles. He believes the F-16 deal is nearly finalized, while the F-35 issue remains far more complicated due to Israeli pressure.
As a “perfect solution,” Asmar proposes relocating the S-400 system to Syria and activating it there. This move, he argues, would neutralize Washington’s main objection against Ankara, potentially reopen the door to the F-35 program, and simultaneously enhance the national security of both Turkey and Syria through deterrent air defense deployments.
Economic and Trade Cooperation
On the economic front, the summit is expected to announce a major agreement for Turkish Airlines to purchase around 250 civilian aircraft from Boeing, one of the largest deals in the company’s history, according to chairman Ahmet Bolat.
Trump has also revived his earlier goal of raising bilateral trade volume to $100 billion annually, compared to about $30 billion at present. Turkey aims to expand its exports to the U.S., attract investment in defense and technology, and secure financial facilities from institutions such as the U.S. Exim Bank to support its industrial projects.
The Syrian File
Political analyst Mahmoud Alloush stresses that Syria will be a central topic in Erdoğan–Trump talks, with three main issues:
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Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Erdoğan seeks a deal with Washington to push the SDF into integration with the Syrian state by year’s end. If this fails, military options may be considered, amid signs of potential Turkish-Syrian coordination on the ground.
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President Ahmad al-Shar’a and sanctions: Turkey, alongside Saudi Arabia, has played a key role in rehabilitating Syrian President Ahmad al-Shar’a, fostering growing Western and U.S. openness toward him. However, the Caesar Act sanctions remain the main obstacle, and Ankara hopes Trump will use his influence to push Congress toward easing them.
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Turkish–Israeli relations in Syria: Washington has mediated between Ankara and Tel Aviv since April, helping de-escalate tensions and open intelligence and military channels. But a potential U.S.-brokered security agreement between Syria and Israel could directly impact Turkey, which is relying on Trump’s leverage to prevent further escalation.
The War in Gaza
The war in Gaza is expected to be one of the most contentious issues. Ankara has taken a sharp stance against Israel, with Erdoğan describing its military operations in the enclave as “genocide.”
In his recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Erdoğan called for an immediate ceasefire and the opening of humanitarian corridors. He emphasized that any improvement in Turkish-Israeli relations will remain conditional on tangible progress toward a two-state solution and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people. He also reminded that over 150 countries have already recognized the State of Palestine.
